Small Cabin

# Posted: 27 Aug 2016 10:04pm
Reply

some of this crap has happened....
see CARRINGTON EFFECT 1859....

# Posted: 27 Aug 2016 10:20pm - Edited by: darz5150
Reply

Quoting: Cowracer

What scares me about these "prepper" types is not that they believe some of this crap will happen. It's not even that they are planning for some of this crap to happen...

Its that some of them seem like they are actively HOPING some of this crap will happne.

FEMA.
Not trying to be derogatory. But if life was all lollipops and rainbows, there would be no need for FEMA, or bunkers in D.C. for the continuity of government, or they wouldn't have done the latest upgrades and hardening of the Cheyenne Mt. facility.
Plus if there is no chance of a power failure or a blackout, why does my mother keep 2 flashlights with fresh batteries? She's not a scarey prepper, LOL

DaveBell
Moderator

# Posted: 27 Aug 2016 10:41pm - Edited by: DaveBell
Reply

We are protected from solar flares by the earth's magnetic field.

If we have a nuclear EMP, everyone will be effected equally (radius wise). So what's the point?

Did someone say "crap"?

# Posted: 27 Aug 2016 10:52pm - Edited by: darz5150
Reply

Just googled this. It seems the earths magnetic field may not protect us.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/solar-storm-warning-sun-shoots-x-flare-outburst- earth-n200321
What happened in the 1800's
Didn't we have an earth magnetic field then?

DaveBell
Moderator

# Posted: 27 Aug 2016 10:55pm
Reply

And you reset the circuit breaker.

Cowracer
Member

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 12:10am - Edited by: Cowracer
Reply

In march of 2012, my plant suffered a catastrophic "event" with our main substation. Video here:

URL

The first half or so is basically a 2300VAC ground fault, but notice the ionized gas cloud (which is conductive) waft over to the top of the main transformers. The second half is 34.5KV (or 34,500 volts) arcing directly to ground. And it was a BIG arc, too.

Notice, please the Dodge sedan parked right by the substation when the main transformer let go. This poor car was subjected to and EMP with flux densities FAR exceeding anything that has ever, or will ever reach earth. It sustained no damage, other than the paint catching hell and about 30 bucks worth or copper melted into its windshield.

It's hard to see in the video, but the pulse was sizeable enough to couple a charge the chain link in the foreground with enough energy to arc to ground, melting all the little plastic strips that was in it for vision blockers. I don't have a copy of it, but the security camera recording of the event showed each little "diamond" of the fence arcing and sizzling from the EMP Flux. It was actually quite cool to see.

I ask you to also note that the cell phone recording the event endured a sizeable EMP as well, without even affecting image quality in the slightest.

My point in all this is that an EMP that would be enough to fry electronics would have to be far more energetic than what you seen here. Im sure that if you were standing next to this substation during this, your credit cards might have gotten degaussed, but then again, you would have had bigger worries than your credit cards. Like maybe where to find clean underwear...

I notice one of the commenters on that page suggested building a Faraday cage to protect your electronics. Sleep well in knowing that just about every significant electronic device is already shielded by a chassis far better designed than any home-made Faraday cage. What would happen in a big "Carrington" style flare is that radio signals of all types (GPS, Cell Phones, Microwave towers, etc) would catch hell, but as soon as the event passed, they would return to normal. The signals would be affected, but not the equipment

Relax, people. The EMP/Solar Flare Apocalypse is just not gonna happen.

Tim

SE Ohio
Member

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 12:50pm
Reply

The 1859 solar flare/emp produced enough energy to shock the hapless telegraph operators. They were even able to send messages over the wires without battery power!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

That is enough power to zap a low voltage electronic device, or most everything "modern". It doesn't take much. Many an IC or transistor has been ruined from a static charge you couldn't feel, let along a surge strong enough to shock someone.

An old tube-type (high voltage) radio would probably survive just fine... Just no power grid left to plug into. Crystal radios would also be fine, just maybe not the broadcasters.

shall
Member

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 05:28pm - Edited by: shall
Reply

the threat is as real as science is real and the probability of it happening, at least naturally, is 100%.
The odds of a Carrington scale event happening during a given decade are around 12%.
The threat is real enough that the China and Russia have hardened their grids.
It's real enough that an EMP caucus exists in Congress.
When a transformer goes down, its replacement takes around a year. They are not manufactured in the US. They are all custom manufactured.
Besides EMP, there are of course many other threats to the grid.
For those "poo pooing" all this as fringe paranoia, you should note that concerns are finally gaining attention in the mainstream. I encourage you to look up any of Ted Koppel's recent Youtube interviews on his latest bestseller Lights Out
Dr Peter Vincent Pry is also a very credible authority on EMP and his videos are worth checking out

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 06:41pm
Reply

Ordinarily I steer clear of the super hard core prepping sites that advocate storing up 100,000 rounds of ammo or 10,000 surgical masks but an EMP is a fascinating possibility. With most other disasters (wildfires, hurricanes) you get a few hours or maybe days of advanced warning. With earthquakes or tornadoes you get very little advanced warning but you count on the fact that the majority of the damage will be fairly centralized and that people outside of the disaster zone will send help.

An EMP will occur within minutes of being ejected by the sun and could take out the entire countries electrical system. What do you do if nobody has the means to come to your aid? One comment made frequently on the more moderate prepping sites is "Two is one and one is none". That means that you should always have a backup or another methods of performing a task in case your primary system fails.

I know that a lot of cabin people feel secure because they aren't tied to the energy grid. If a storm or accident brings down the power lines they figure that they'll be fine because their solar panel system will keep the lights on, the freezer working and the well pump running. I'm wondering if people have manual backup systems in case none of their motors will work.

The problem isn't that an EMP nay knock the power plants offline for a while, it's that the electronic chips that operate the plants will be fried and need to be replaced. How long could that take? Even if the electric companies can get the replacement parts I had never considered that in order to start up an electrical plant you needed a massive amount of electricity from another plant to get it going. You need an operating plant in order to fire up another plant.

Do you have a means of hand pumping water? Can you keep food frozen without power? Do you have backup lighting or a means of cooking? I assume that most people have a wood stove so heating may not be a concern but do you have enough firewood to last a whole season? How much food do you have if you're 50 miles from town in the winter and the car doesn't work?

How would your life change if you had no power?

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 09:02pm
Reply

Oh stop sun flares, and forest fires aren't real...... And don't get me started on those made up hurricanes.........

DaveBell
Moderator

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 09:23pm - Edited by: DaveBell
Reply

I bought my property in the mountains so I don't have to worry about any of this stuff. Went out this past June with some friends for three weeks, ate canned and freeze dried food, drank filtered water from the creek, made coffee over the camp fire - used no power at all.

My security system is a bunch of armed rednecks over two miles long, who don't like most folks, who watch the area like hawks, and are the best bunch of neighbors.

I get water from the mountain stream, and have so much game around, I'll never need for food.

Bring on the EMP!

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 10:08pm - Edited by: darz5150
Reply

Noah didn't wait for the rain before he built the Ark. He was prepared.(pic 1)
Some people can see no reason to prepare.( pic 2) FEMA will be there in a few days or weeks, then it will be lollipops and rainbows again!

noahsark.jpg

headinthesandign.jpg

Cowracer
Member

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 10:15pm
Reply

and some people don't spend their whole lives living in fear of something they read about on the internet.

Tim

# Posted: 28 Aug 2016 10:56pm
Reply

They sure spend a lot of time talking about it.......

# Posted: 29 Aug 2016 08:57pm - Edited by: rockies
Reply

I was reading a disaster preparedness book last night and they had a list of possible scenarios of what might happen in the US one day. There was a flu pandemic scenario, an EMP scenario, a major earthquake scenario, etc.

Then the last scenario mentioned quoted an article by major climate scientists predicting that within the next few years a major hurricane is expected to hit the New York area and they discussed what the fallout from that could be. I immediately thought "What a minute. What about hurricane Sandy? When was this book published?"

Turns out in 2011. Funny how the "doom and gloomers" get it right once in a while.

The debate about disasters can go on forever. None of the people affected by any of the major disasters in the last 5 years ever really thought it could happen to them but I'll bet that after it was over they all thought "Someone will come to help us soon". Today? Next week? How long did it take after Katrina before substantial aid began to arrive? How long did the cleanup after hurricane Sandy take?

Whether or not a disaster eventually happens doesn't negate the fact that people should have back up systems in place in case they do. I'm more interested in the systems that you would need than the debate.

As far as disasters go an EMP would be the most far reaching for the US. If a few weeks at the cabin turns into 9-12 months without power what will you do? Just for fun (as a mental exercise) have a look around your property and ask yourself "If the power goes out and never comes back on how would I":

Get water?
Keep food cold or frozen?
Have heat?
Cook?
Have lights?
Communicate with the outside world?
Travel?

# Posted: 29 Aug 2016 11:20pm
Reply

Quoting: rockies

None of the people affected by any of the major disasters in the last 5 years ever really thought it could happen to them but I'll bet that after it was over they all thought "Someone will come to help us soon". Today? Next week?

Here is a real life answer. I used to live in LA. Today I talked to some people I know that were affected. They didn't have flood insurance because they didn't live in a designated flood plain according to the corps of engineers. That's why there weren't levy's built.
They were fortunate enough to stand in line (for several hours) to receive a couple plastic bags of canned goods and some bottled water. They also got paperwork to fill out for FEMA assistance. They have to get a notice from their ins. company saying that they aren't covered for a flood, since it is considered an act of god. After they get the letter from the ins. co. stating that they aren't covered since it is considered an act of god, and the corps of engineers said they were in no danger of flooding, they will then be able to apply for assistance from FEMA.
Part of the problem with applying for government help Is that a lot of people don't have a mailbox anymore because it was washed away from the flood, or knocked down with a backhoe, when they were scooping up ALL of their belongings from their homes, that was piled up on the streets where their mailboxes used to be. So now they have to find the money to put up a new mailbox, before they can get a rejection letter from the ins. co. to send to FEMA, in order to get assistance, because they didn't have flood insurance, because the corps of engineers said they weren't living in a flood plain!!!!
Anyhoos, here is a link as of today, stating that they (FEMA) have only been capable of building 1 housing unit. They are waiting for the approval of the local inspectors to approve peoples property so they can install other housing units that ARE available, but they have to wait til the property can be verified as "affected negatively" from the natural disaster.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fema-criticized-slow-disaster-housing-aid-louisiana-162231 314.html

Steve_S
Member

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 08:24am
Reply

Quoting: rockies

Get water? Keep food cold or frozen? Have heat? Cook? Have lights? Communicate with the outside world? Travel?

EMP, Asteroid, Floods / Quakes, Terrorism ... long list of "Possibles" any of which could happen at any time with little to no warning. That is life, just like it was 1000 years ago and likely a 1000 years from now (if we haven't destroyed the planet by then). We come so close, so often it is best folks don't know how precarious our existence is on this rock.

No point in worrying about "what will doom us" and just accept that life is uncertain and there are no guarantees, except for one... We will all die at some point in time... everything up to that point is possible.

Rockies points out what everyone should do for themselves and is just good sense... Just a concept that "modern humans" have to relearn but is contrary to the "on demand access" consumerism that plagues society today... but that dependence is the greatest weakness we have, like an addiction... tough to break away from.

FYI there is a great site that lists the history of many Solar Flares and their impacts.... We came '' That close to being nuked a couple of times because Flares whacked out the radar and more... scary when you consider it. http://www.solarstorms.org/ and look at the sub-sections like "Our Utilities / Blackouts" and there's links to NASA Watch and more there too. Here is the Solar Storm Archive as well... http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html Some Surprises there !

Bottom Line: There is only One Person YOU can count on, that is YOU ! Then family, after that, all bets are off.

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 04:16pm
Reply

"Preppers, and prepping" have got a bad rap from some tv shows, and internet sites. Maybe some are crazy, but most don't even know they are preppers. It doesn't have to be a life ending event. We all carry a spare tire in our vehicles, not expecting to need it. It's not right, or wrong, just a personal choice.......

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 08:42pm
Reply

Recently I attended a city sponsored lecture on "What to do in the event of a major earthquake" for the city I live in. The lady from the Disaster Preparedness Department gave a very nice talk about having a 72 hour emergency bag ready by the front door and how to "duck and cover" during the event. She had been with the cities disaster department for 20 years and acknowledged that the city knew that a major earthquake was "not a matter of if, but when".

She talked about food and water supplies, having a small medical kit and other emergency needs. As she was winding up I put up my hand and asked "If there is a major earthquake here and a large number of buildings are destroyed or severely damaged what does the city want us to do afterward"?

She said that we should make our way to an emergency shelter where the city would have 1000 volunteers to assist us.

One thousand volunteers for a city of 3.5 million people. She neglected to tell us where the shelters were but she seemed to feel that all 1000 volunteers would be unharmed and willing to abandon their own homes and families to make their way across the city to their assigned posts. The nice lady also had to admit that there wouldn't be any food, water or medical supplies at the shelters even if the shelters themselves had managed to survive the earthquake. I think everyone there knew that they were on their own when the earthquake does hit.

One thing I discovered while doing some follow up research after this earthquake lecture was that all major food companies have moved to a "just in time" delivery system. Years ago store chains like Walmart, Costco, Safeway, etc used to have enormous warehouses in every major city with a month's worth of food and supplies. They don't have those anymore (too expensive). Now most major cities have a maximum of 3 days of food available to restock stores and they rely on trucks to bring in supplies "just in time".

I guess that's why there are always news reports showing stores being cleared out before and after every hurricane or storm. I wonder why more people don't prepare?

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 09:17pm - Edited by: rockies
Reply

Oh, the nuclear fallout!

http://www.whentechfails.com/400-chernobyls-solar-flares-emp-and-nuclear-armageddon/

Spent Nuclear Fuel Rod Storage

http://www.activistpost.com/2011/03/us-stores-spent-nuclear-fuel-rods-at-4.html

Nuclear Plants USA

Spent Fuel Locations

hattie
Member

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:10pm
Reply

I've talked with my adult kids many times about emergencies (earthquakes, etc.) and they have said they would just die. They figure that their chances would be very slim to survive any major event.

We have told all of our children that this is where they need to head to in an emergency. The problem would be getting here. I am sure it would be next to impossible to get out of a big city with everyone trying to escape. My "winter project" is going to be to sit down with Bob and try to figure out an evacuation route for all of them that wouldn't involve major bridges and major highways. Then I'll send them all printed maps to keep in their B.O.B.'s.

I don't know how we would fare out here in the sticks, but I'm sure our chances would be better than in a city.

If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend "One Second After". It is a real eye-opener!

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:31pm - Edited by: darz5150
Reply

Ted Koppel also wrote a book, Lights Out that is highly rated.

LoonWhisperer
Member

# Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:44pm
Reply

Quoting: hattie

If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend "One Second After". It is a real eye-opener!

Agreed! Fantastic book and certainly motivated me to do some additional prepping.