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gcrank1
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# Posted: 23 Feb 2022 05:43pm
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If you've been waiting for LFP battery prices to go down before buying in you may have missed the low.
Price per ton of lith is spiking along with demand,,both now and future with the move away from dino-fuels. Ive been looking at investor news on this since it was mentioned that the Russia/Ukraine mess may impact supply. Even though China dominates with 80%ish they have achieved this by contracting for all the supply they can get, and Russia is on friendly terms while 'The West' is not.
Just like everything else, when demand is high and supply is fixed, or low, the price goes up.
Dont want to be doom & gloom, just practical; imo, along with out of control inflation raising prices the demand of lithium exceeding supply will only make LFP more expensive, maybe much more, and probably sooner than later.
I may be buying another 100ah LFP soon.
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paulz
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# Posted: 23 Feb 2022 08:13pm
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I rarely get a ride in an electric car, but took a ride in a neighbor's Tesla the other night. A fancy one with gull wing doors. That thing has a video screen on the dash bigger than my desktop PC! I told him i have to have a pickup. He said there are a slew of new electric pickups coming on the market.
Then my wife went shopping with another neighbor in an electric Fiat, cute little thing. I was back at the cabin, just me and the dog, most of the day. I'm almost never alone there, it sure was peaceful, no nagging! She called that afternoon and said they may not have enough battery to make it back. I said no problem, take it slow. 
So are the car companies going to have batteries for all the electric cars and trucks?
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gcrank1
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# Posted: 23 Feb 2022 09:58pm - Edited by: gcrank1
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That is probably The Question.
By 2030, only 8 yrs!, several manufacturers are planning for 40% of fleet to be ev and by 2040 50% of sales elec. China, with its huge and prospering working class, is heavy into developing ev's. At this point it looks like LFP too. Not just cars, elec scooter, motorcycles, lawn & power, utv's, etc. Pick any currently ic engine powered equipment and it will be very possibly mandated or dino-fuels so expensive that bat-op will be the 'economical' choice.
Then there is all the rest of the mod-con pers devices for the consumer market and the untold dependency of the mil/ind complex.
With the power plant change to solar fields and wind power there is a need for massive storage units, the size of city blocks?, for when the sun dont shine and the wind dont blow.
Huge Demand increasing by the 'pick the time segment you like'.
Im thinkin that within a year we may well be looking back at now and wishing we had todays pricing. 
Update: Im going to pick up my 2nd LFP 100ah today!
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gcrank1
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# Posted: 24 Feb 2022 04:49pm - Edited by: gcrank1
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Ya know....buying the 2nd one was easier than the 1st 
2 x 100ah LFP are under 60# compared to 300-400# lead (for comparable usable ah's) and take up far less space.
The 200 ah's are All Usable.
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NorthRick
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# Posted: 24 Feb 2022 06:13pm - Edited by: NorthRick
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So, my flooded lead-acid battery bank is way past its useful life (11 years old). I decided I'd replace it with the same - 6v golf cart batteries from Costco. I swung by the other day to see what the price was, expecting sticker shock. $87.99 apiece.
I asked the clerk, "is that right?"
"Yep."
I think that is what I paid for the ones I have 11 years ago.
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gcrank1
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# Posted: 24 Feb 2022 06:39pm
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Ive been following fla in marine and golf cart bats for the past couple years anticipating having to replace my bank.
In that Ive seen a lot of reports of the low-end fla's not having the amp-hours they 'used to have'; like only 80%. And reports of them not lasting as long as they used to either. My conclusion, kinda iffy.
If you buy them, or can weigh them before buying, it would be interesting to find out if they weigh as much as the old ones. Thing is that over 11years the cost of lead, and all the other materials, and the labor, has gone up so how can they sell them at the same price?
Fwiw, I did not want to deal with the weight, the footprint, the fla maintenance of 4 gc bats to get a 2s/2p bat-bank of 400ish ah's to get 200 usable.
As I alluded to in the lead-in, I do not expect lfp, or even fla to get cheaper (in fact, my 2nd car bat needs replacement and around here car bats are up 20ish% from last fall). Anticipating/speculating ahead 2-4 yrs I suspect lfp may be less affordable to me than now.
We were talking about it....
Then my wife said,"We can afford it".
Cinched!
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Steve_S
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 04:58am
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LOL... Weigh the difference !
Coincidence or what... Was at the Truck Shop and two of the guys were having "the chat" about batteries and how the older ones were better etc....
The one mechanic finally says you don't believe they got crappy, he stomps off and returns with an old (15 yrs or so) Motomaster AGM Battery he used to have in his truck, then pulls the replacement from his truck... Apparently from the marking it's the identical match for his other (it's also a Motomaster AGM same size & even PN) Even without weighing them the new one was much lighter, when weighed it was 5 Lbs lighter.
Motomaster is Canadian Tire "House Brand Label" that used to use Exide Batteries BEFORE the penny pincher equity company morons got to CTC. Now they are imported from lowest bidder out of China.
BTW: Exide today is NOT the company it was before either.
Future Battery Costs are quite unknown... There is a LOT of hostility, rhetoric and general chest pounding going on, which affects everything. Western Nation Lithium Battery (in general) production still has at least 3 years before any significant production starts "provided material supply is available" which it is NOT at present. Between the NIMBY's and Green/Eco Groups which are being manipulated by Big Fossil (fuelling fear & anxieties and even funding some groups), resource extraction is HAMSTRUNG until someone finally says enough is enough. (Good Luck on that).
You know what you CAN get today and at what price it is... Tomorrow, Next Month or Next Year, that will likely change... for the better or worse is not known BUT seeing the BS Flying around between the Politicians & Fools supporting them, it's a safe enough assumption to think things will only get worse.
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Brettny
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 06:43am
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Just because a battery today is lighter than 15yrs ago dosnt mean it's a bad battery. I'm sure the manufacturing process has changed to make AGM batteries in the last 15yrs. You can also make the argument that anything made 15yrs ago was better quality and will last longer than today.
With that being said I buy the cheapest car, tractor and battery bank batteries I can find. I have absolutely no brand loyalty..mostly in part because by the time you find out the brand is good its prob changed.
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Steve_S
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 07:17am
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Right, thinner lead plates make no difference. Got it.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 09:58am
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I was never one to buy the top-o-the-line bat for my vehicles, or the cheapest. My rule-of-thumb has been for decades to get a more amp-hour bat than the oem, mid-priced, and that has served me well.
Now Im thinking that the mid-priced is probably more like the low-end bat used to be....
Watch the ah 'rating'! Ive seen smoke and mirrors, like less amps load over fewer hours than the old 20hr 'standard' (for deep cycle) or less load for reserve cap or cca starter bats.
So, I start making my 'got this thing-needs battery' list; Im in a world of hurt (though probably not as bad as Paul).
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happilyretired
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 10:09am
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Quoting: Steve_S Between the NIMBY's and Green/Eco Groups which are being manipulated by Big Fossil (fuelling fear & anxieties and even funding some groups), resource extraction is HAMSTRUNG until someone finally says enough is enough. (Good Luck on that). You know what you CAN get today and at what price it is... Tomorrow, Next Month or Next Year, that will likely change... for the better or worse is not known BUT seeing the BS Flying around between the Politicians & Fools supporting them, it's a safe enough assumption to think things will only get worse.
Big Fossil/Big Oil has no problem selling their product. They don't need to hamper battery production to hold their share of the market.
If "Big Oil" thought that they could make more money selling batteries then they would either switch or add batteries to their product line.
They just want to make money, and it doesn't matter if it's oil, batteries, or pixie dust.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 10:48am - Edited by: gcrank1
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They may well have diversified already, or soon will; you dont need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows, all ya gotta do is pay attention.
But when I started this thread I wanted to share what I sense is a very potential issue possibly soon coming, either 'supply chain' or real battery shortages and/or higher prices of lithium based chemistries in specific or Lead Acid too.
If we just stick to the mining and manufacturing aspect along with inflation it should be clear from history in most of our lifetimes that this 'threat' is real.
Remember the lumber thing last year?
So, just a heads up if anybody doesnt want to be blindsided because you were thinking about the other priorities in your life.
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Steve_S
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 11:21am
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I have contacts I deal with directly offshore for this stuff... ALL are already talking about the pending increases and the potential of where it will go for costs.
I can say that several are filling their warehouses in US, EU etc NOW with current priced product in anticipation that markup added on as prices climb to increase profit margin even if inventory has to sit a bit.
Many companies are build EV Battery Factories (NOT LFP Chemistry though) and a few are doing LFP Factories as the IP comes up in 2 months but "production" is still 24 Months away AT BEST ! and That is provided they can get the resources which everyone is nurdling over now.
Ironically, I had organized a big buy for a damned good price and the partner furtled & furtled and backed out due to being overwhelmed by fear-mongering and anti-china chicken-littleism. NOW the same are 15% more expensive within 40 days.
MONEY SAVER TIP !
Presently many manufacturers & vendors are sitting on a LOT of stock of smaller LFP Cells, 100AH and down because everyone is rushing for the 200-300AH cells. The Demand for larger cells has made smaller cells cheaper & easier to get. As such, the 12V/24V/48V 100AH Battery Packs will remain cheaper and even better if your buying raw cells to DIY your own packs. * Many want to clear the inventory, it's $$ sitting in a box doing nothing for them.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 12:04pm
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The place I got my 2 100ah lfps had those sit for the last year, likely the price. When I got the 1st one (about 1 mo. ago) they had 6ish 20ah, 4 50ah and the 1 100ah left.
Wed when I bought #2 there was only 1 50ah left.
They had discounted them last Nov for their annual sale days and never marked em back up.
As it is an Amish lumber and hardware store I go there fairly regular in season, its pretty close to the cabin. It will be interesting to see what their reorder pricing will be.
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Brettny
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 02:13pm
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Quoting: Steve_S Right, thinner lead plates make no difference. Got it.
Thicker plates dont mean they sulphate less does it? Usualy batteries get weak and are replaced. Not have a cell go deal.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2022 04:10pm
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The use of thicker lead plates is well known and documented in higher grade and premium batteries forever now and likewise thin plates in bargain bats.
You dont always get what you pay for but in this case I think it fair to say we are not going to get a high grade bat build for a bargain price any more, if we ever did.
Lots of great info on Batteryunivercity.com
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Steve_S
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# Posted: 27 Feb 2022 09:30am
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Quoting: Steve_S Right, thinner lead plates make no difference. Got it.
BTW to Clarify that WAS Sarcasm !
Kind of akin to a 2bee4 upside the noggin type of sarcasm to be clear.
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