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DaveBell
Moderator
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# Posted: 12 Feb 2021 11:16pm
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/lumber-prices-skyrocket-pushing-up-housing-costs.html
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paulz
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 12:32am
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I was driving down the freeway today along side an 18 wheeler loaded to the gills with 2by. Looked like bars of gold.
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lburners
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 10:58am
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This seems like more than a simple supply demand issue. 112% price hike! I know it may sound conspiratorial but there is something fishy going on. I have seen graphs of milling production through Covid and it didn't drop that drastically. There seems to be a bunch of factors but it is my suspicion that it is somehow linked with keeping housing prices high.
I am hoping to continue my build in the Spring and every time I look at sheet goods pricing 
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 11:19am
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Looks awfully much like we are (Again) being played like a deck of cards.
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ICC
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 12:01pm
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Not everything is a conspiracy, but if it makes anyone feel better, go for it.
For the past several decades whenever we would need a special garage door for a build or remodel it would require maybe 3 to 4 weeks lead time at the very most. By special I mean one of the optional, non-standard colors, panel sizes, high R-value insulation, windows, something different from what you see as you drive up some common residential street. In January I had the framing and sheathing on a garage completed. January 11 I went into town to order. I picked out the color, panel type, R18 insulation, etc, and went to order the doors. My supplier estimated the delivery date to be about mid-April. That is or was unheard of. The manufacturing plant is running slow because of covid-19 related things. Fortunately, the prices are about the same as the last door purchase.
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Brettny
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 01:11pm
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At the end of 2018 I paid $8.68 per sheet of 7/16 osb. Today its $31. 3/4 plywood sub floor has followed the same price pattern but not 3.5x as much...its only doubled.
I didnt click on the link. Sorry not driving any more traffic to CNBC.
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lburners
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 01:17pm
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I agree not everything is a conspiracy but from my point of view the 112% price increase is not explainable by any of the information out there.From lumber reports I have seen they are pushing out as much product as possible from the mills and its not far off from normal capacity.
Another thing I am curious about is where does that money from the jacked up price go? Are the mills making a killing? As I understand the raw logs are at the same pricing.
I have been watching the lumber futures in astonishment and am disappointed that brokers gambling on speculation are making me come out of pocket for lumber prices. I have heard the cost of a new home build has gone up 20k+ at this point.
I have no clue as there are a lot of facets but from what I understand its pretty unprecedented.
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Brettny
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 02:35pm
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I'm not sure who the money goes to in over valued lumber. Home values even on old houses has skyrocketed in my area the last year. We are talking at least a 2x increase. Imagine the interest made from the banks on 100k alone.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 05:37pm
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From some other things Ive been involved in/experienced the ones who 'take the profits' are not the producers but the middlemen and speculators.
Ime the closer to the producer one can get the better the buy.
Ive got a local sawmill within 3 mi of my new place that Im going to have to get to know.
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lburners
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 06:54pm
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It looks like I can source 1x10x16ft for 12$ each so It would be the same price as using 3/8" cdx. Something to think about. Feel like the shear strength from ply might be better though.
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paulz
Member
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# Posted: 13 Feb 2021 08:33pm
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I do see ads for plywood from some that may not be aware of what's going on.
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Brettny
Member
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# Posted: 14 Feb 2021 12:54pm
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Quoting: lburners It looks like I can source 1x10x16ft for 12$ each so It would be the same price as using 3/8" cdx. Something to think about. Feel like the shear strength from ply might be better though.
I looked at that also. The price per square foot on pine boards for sheething is looking awfully good. For decades all they used was pine boards. Half of my house is pine boards including the roof and even the sub floor.
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Irrigation Guy
Member
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# Posted: 14 Feb 2021 05:11pm
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I used all rough sawn from the local mill when I built my addition and saved considerably from the lumber yard. And when finishing out the interior using the rough for the ceilings may not have been cheaper than sheet rock but I got it cut and nailed up and was done with it in an hour and a half and it looks cool.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 14 Feb 2021 05:55pm
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I like boards! 
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paulz
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 07:19am
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I wonder.. was lumber lagging behind in cost previously? I mean, I always considered it cheap for what you got compared to other hard goods, one of the few things I rarely shopped around for price. 2-3 bucks for a stud, 10-20 for sheathing when I built my cabin.
I certainly hope it goes back down at least some.
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Brettny
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 07:50am
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Irrigation guy. Those prices are about the same as my local mill is showing too. There prices really haven't gone up in years.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 10:59am
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My gut tells me that the 'good old days' pricing will not return but when prices do fall to about mid-way between the current high and the old days we will feel really good about it and buy everything in sight.
Then there will be a shortage (remember supply and demand) and prices will spike again.
Rinse and repeat.
Also, the rebuilding of housing from the constant natural disasters is going to be sucking up product. We will be in competition with contractors....guess who wins.
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zorro
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 01:48pm
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Totally agree - they are fairly quick to ramp up prices to extortionate rates............but am 100% sure they will not drop prices back to pre COVID as quickly
If they are getting these crazy prices - where is the incentive to drop them back down again?
I think we are in for a lot of pain in terms of lumber prices...............and DONT get me started on ammo!
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Shadyacres
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 04:08pm
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Just checked on price of 1/2 inch osb today at local lumber yard, over 37 a sheet.
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snobdds
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 05:11pm
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Boards don't provide the same sheer and racking strength as sheet goods. The old framers had to cut in a diagonal stud to every wall to provide some racking strength, otherwise the wall would rack over. Other ways was just to cut boards on a 45* and sheet that way. I just don't see how using all that 1x lumber is any cheaper.
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ICC
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 05:55pm
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I once had a link to a test report where they built wall sections and sheathed one with 7/16 osb one side, another using the old time method of fully boarding the wall with diagonally placed 1x boards and another with diagonal 1x4's let into notched studs, as per one permitted IRC method. The wall section bottom plates eere firmly anchored down. A hydraulic ram was used to push on one upper corner of the wall section. Pushing along the line of the wall. They measured the pounds of force needed to cause deformation or failure of the wall. I wish I could find it because the difference was substantial with the osb sheathed wall coming out way on top.
I too don't see the dollar savings. I am glad I am not building anything for myself or anyone elase right now. But if I was building I would not want to go back in time and use boards. I just looked for the heck of it; 7/16 osb 4x8 ft is 35.05 today locally. Strangely, 4x9 ft sheets are 33.81.
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lburners
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 05:59pm
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Thanks so much for the input. What about 1x12x16ft boards for roof sheathing? Does that provide the same racking issues or is that only applicable or walls?
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ICC
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 06:17pm
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A roof is just a wall tilted over. 1x12 at 45 to 60 degree diagonal would definitely be better than boards laid across the rafters at 90 degrees.
The nailing schedule calls for 2 - 8D common or 3 - 8D box nails per stud. No board width specified. You need to be concerned with possible splitting at nail points if the boards are very dry. Any splitting zeros out the effectiveness of that nail reducing strength.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 06:58pm
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And I can attest to the pain-in-the-nether-region of having to pre-drill EVERY nail hole to avoid splitting.
How about using sheet product on just the corners?
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snobdds
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 08:38pm
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That would help with the rigidity of the envelope, but then you have a sheeting thickness that you have to replicate in the field of the wall with 1x material. Sounds simple, but it's not.
The cheapest and fastest way is still osb or plywood. If your time is of any value to you, you will still pay the man the price at the store.
I know some people use denseglass sheeting, so i was curious of that price. $35 for a 4x8 sheet. Unbelievable.
I'm thinking to myself that I hit the lottery with the price I paid for sheet goods. I feel sorry people building in todays environment.
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gcrank1
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 08:49pm
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I think Id shim the studs to the sheet to bring it flush to the board sheathing thickness.
All this only if using boards for the acreage was enough cheaper to justify using them.
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ICC
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 09:18pm
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Quoting: gcrank1 I think Id shim the studs to the sheet to bring it to flush to the board sheathing thickness.
That will reduce the rigidness of the sheathed corner. Maybe not a lot for one nail but collectively the difference can add up. To resolve that one would need more nails or larger diameter nails. An engineer could tell you what to do.
If you play around with the AWC connection calculator you can see how the thickness of the panel being fastened (called the side member) onto another piece (called the main member) affects the strength of the connection. Do that and you can come up wiyh a good idea of how to make the braced panel as strong as it would be without any shimming under it.
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Nobadays
Member
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# Posted: 16 Feb 2021 10:17pm
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Quoting: gcrank1 How about using sheet product on just the corners?
I am certainly not an engineer, but I did help build several housing blocks in New Zealand and this is exactly what the engineers/architect designed for these buildings. A very temperate area so not double wall construction. Just studs and these plywood... not osb... stiffiners on the corners. The buildings were then wrapped with tyvek and had a brick veneer over that.
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snobdds
Member
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# Posted: 18 Feb 2021 01:51pm
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It's going to be another rough summer for cabin building.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/lumber-prices-top-1000-as-single-family-housing-start s-drop-12percent.html
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spencerin
Member
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# Posted: 25 Feb 2021 12:18am
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I would say it's not that demand exceeds supply but that demand itself is so strong. If enough people want something, they all can afford it, and they all are willing to pay for it, then suppliers will increase price because they know there's a good chance it will still be bought regardless of supply. This isn't your typical, simple supply-and-demand behavior.
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