|
| Author |
Message |
socceronly
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 10:36am
Reply
Not sure what it's like in your neck of the woods.... but here in Vancouver I was paying $7 ($5.50US) for a single 2x4. The hockey stick factory (Home Depot) has them on for $5.10 now so maybe it's come down a bit already.
4x8 sheet of sanded 3/4" was $82 after tax.
But people are buying it... all of it.
I can't see prices coming down for a long time.
Think I might weld my framing with scrap steel....or just not build at all this summer.
|
|
Alaskajohn
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 10:43am
Reply
Socceronly, that is a great question. With everything going on in the world, I fear this will get worse before it ever gets better. In my opinion, 2019 was the last of the good old years. I doubt things will ever return to 2019 levels of well stocked shelves and low prices. Me, I’m stocking up on anything that I think is of value for any of my planned projects. I only hit town once a month and have a trailer stashed so I can bring back to my wilderness those items I need. Also working to make my own lumber.
Just my opinion...
|
|
gcrank1
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 10:47am - Edited by: gcrank1
Reply
It isnt just market demand; ie, mills not running to capacity thus 'shortage' thus higher prices, it is inflation/devaluation of any currency's purchase power.
Increase the money supply (due to whatever reason, currently Covid, but never mention bad fiscal policy/money management) by double and it cuts the purchase power of 'each dollar' in half.
We have seen petro fuels come down from their previous highs, but what else has? And when are those petro fuels going back up?
Imo, prices for lumber will settle out at about 50% above what they were before. That is what Im using to calc my needs anyway.....
|
|
paulz
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 11:09am
Reply
Wow. I need some studs for some shelving, checked HD two days ago, $3.50 a pop. Just checked after seeing this thread, up 2 bucks! Luckily just need a few. Plywood has been crazy for awhile.
|
|
darz5150
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 12:12pm
Reply
I just got 1 1x12, 8 feet long. 1 1x12, 12 feet long, and 1 48 inch, 7/8 dowel rod. Total with tax.
$49.72.
|
|
Houska
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 06:11pm
Reply
In my opinion, lumber prices will come down, but likely not before mid-summer or even the fall.
Demand is being driven up by a) COVID stay-at-homes building stuff DIY, b) a continued booming residential home market. Supply is c) constrained by rough lumber the mills have, d) by supply chain issues (turning into finished lumber, distribution).
a) and d) will continue until COVID is more or less resolves, i.e. vaccination is commonplace and life is back to "normal" (I'm not focused on how many will refuse vaccination, I'm referring to when those who want to will be able to get the shot, and constraints on the economy will subside).
c) will resolve over several months, and may even overshoot. b) and a) will both quite likely reverse in a year or two as we actually all pay the piper for slowing down the economy for a year.
All of that together means I don't see why lumber prices would drop in the next few months. And I don't see why they'd stay high long-term, i.e. past the summer/fall.
|
|
gcrank1
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 07:04pm - Edited by: gcrank1
Reply
If the inflation/devaluation was not a factor Id agree, but those are the biggest reason prices continually spiral upward. The supply/demand thing runs like a sine wave up/down as a bell curve and reverse bell but the base line of both the curves is constantly going upward.
Add to that the need for a profit to stay in business and all the increasing costs of doing business and you can see that prices cant fall below the cost of production, including delivery and market.
|
|
Houska
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 08:32pm - Edited by: Houska
Reply
Well, current futures markets can be seen at https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/lumber-and-pulp/random-length-lumber.ht ml, versus historicals at https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber
So, on average, traders currently expect prices in summer 2021 to drop down about 30% or so from now, to about 50% above spring/summer 2019 levels but below spring 2018 levels.
Of course, traders may be very wrong. And will vary by geography and specific dimensions/product.
|
|
|
Princelake
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 10:29pm
Reply
I sure hope it comes down also. I’m currently planning on building this spring but that won’t happen at these prices. If they don’t come down my lot is going up for sale.
|
|
gcrank1
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Jan 2021 10:56pm
Reply
We bought our current place because we like the land, the rough, simple cabin was a plus....maybe....not built like I would but so far we can use it.
How about building a good sized deck that you could 'tent on'? Or a pavilion or gazebo? Lots less wood, still usable when you build a real structure and maybe can be done without complications or permits?
If ours burned down or the powers that be red flag it Id sure think on the above 'cause we like the land that much.
|
|
socceronly
Member
|
# Posted: 6 Jan 2021 12:58am
Reply
Deck and tent shelter are the plan currently.
Going to start in May.
|
|
Steve_S
Member
|
# Posted: 6 Jan 2021 08:11am
Reply
When something occurs which results in shortages or supply disruptions that cause prices for a specific set of good to go up, all the companies raise the "MSRP". But as time goes on and supply disruptions are resolved and stock is readily available, NONE of the prices at the retail level come down, regardless if the wholesale prices comes down.
We have seen this constantly & continually repeated and not just in the Lumber sector...
This is no different than teh Shrink-Flation tactics used by all teh companies. Rather than increasing the price for "Product A", they come out with a New & Improved packaging which contains less prodfuct at the same price or slightly higher.
Remember when a Pound of Bacon (454 grams) was an actual POUND and not 300 grams ! How about that 1 Pound of coffee that is now 300 grams.
When the Duties on steel increased, cost of nails went up, when the duties were cancelled no costs came down.
Joe & Jane Q Public put up with it and corporations will keep doing it... Ever feel like you're getting Roto-Rootered up the backside ?
|
|
drb777
Member
|
# Posted: 9 Jan 2021 07:55pm
Reply
As several have alluded to, high priced lumber can, to an extent, be explained by the actual decrease in the value of our currency. (Caused by the tremendous deficit spending.) Normally, these changes happen at such a slow rate, the consumers hardly notice. But with other current factors, not this time. Likewise, finished beef prices are sky-high, and not likely to decrease anytime soon, if ever.
Not really a great (cheap) solution, but I've been making my own lumber with a Woodmizer sawmill. 'Lots of work, when you include harvesting & handling the trees, but very satisfying if you enjoy such things.
|
|
paulz
Member
|
# Posted: 9 Jun 2021 08:29pm
Reply
Lumber industry veteran Kyle Little told CNBC on Tuesday that it’s a sensible decision to hold off on beginning discretionary building projects due to high wood costs.
“The jobs that you have coming up, don’t expect us to go back to what we saw the previous 10 years. That being said, if you can wait, there’s no reason not to,†the chief operating officer at Sherwood Lumber said on “The Exchange.â€
“We do see some relief over the next six to 12 months, still albeit at prices that are much, much higher than prices we’ve experienced in the recent past,†added Little, who’s spent more than a decade at Sherwood Lumber, a privately held New York-based wholesale distributor. He’s also a former lumber trader.
Lumber futures have faced significant weakness in the past month following a major move higher during the Covid pandemic. Lumber futures for July delivery fell more than 5% to $1,158 per thousand board feet Tuesday, which is down more than 30% from a record $1,711 on May 10.
Despite the recent declines, lumber remains up more than 200% in the past 12 months.
In late May, Little told CNBC he expected the current lumber cycle, featuring volatile trading and elevated prices, to remain for “the foreseeable future.†At the time, he stressed that prices could come off their highs but still be above historic averages.
He reiterated that view Tuesday, saying the company’s forecast “really has not changed.â€
“We’re in month number 12 of what we believe to be a 24-to-30-month ... cyclical bull wave,†Little said. “We really believe the new three-year mean will be much, much higher — almost two times than what we’ve seen the previous 20 years.â€
The sharp move higher in wood prices has added cost to projects and was cited as one factor behind a drop in housing construction that was reported in April.
Little said a pullback in lumber was “inevitable†as higher prices tamed demand.
“These builders and our customers are very savvy,†Little added. “They’re instructing their customers: If it doesn’t need to be done today, it might be a better time to take a breather and start this project later in the fourth quarter, possibly in Q1 of 2022.â€
|
|
gcrank1
Member
|
# Posted: 9 Jun 2021 11:48pm
Reply
Ive never seen that 'futures traders' have ever done me any good.
|
|
Brettny
Member
|
# Posted: 10 Jun 2021 05:34am
Reply
Plywood still rose this week by $4 for 3/4 plywood..I have been tracking my local HD prices on various sheet goods and 2x4x8 for over a year now. I dont think we have even hit the top yet. Just wait for the hurricanes to really start rolling a shore.
|
|
gcrank1
Member
|
# Posted: 10 Jun 2021 10:12am
Reply
I agree; there are those who MUST rebuild, not only from this years coming disasters but finishing up from some past, then there are those of us with 'wants'. The Musts will get the bulk of production and the insurance will pay a lot of it, BUT, if you dont have a 'replacement costs' clause in your insurance maybe get it NOW or your ins. may not be near enough!
Im waiting for the ins. prem. to go up any time now.
Fwiw, in the last month here the cost of treated 5/4 x 6" x 8' decking went from $9.18 to $10.18 each (yesterdays price).
|
|
Curly
Member
|
# Posted: 10 Dec 2021 08:14pm
Reply
Uh,oh. Lumber prices are headed back up.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/12/10/lumber-continues-its-wild-ride-with-no-end-in-s ight-says-sherwood-lumber-coo.html?&qsearchterm=lumber
|
|
gcrank1
Member
|
# Posted: 10 Dec 2021 08:39pm
Reply
My 'gut' tells me we are in for another summer, maybe from here on out, of 'gulp-pricing'.
|
|
kevlar
Member
|
# Posted: 10 Dec 2021 10:59pm
Reply
Bought the last of the wood I needed today to get the majority of my cabin built, had heard and was worried about it going up again. Sure wish I had done this a few years ago, but no money and having kids said otherwise.
|
|
Whiskerbiscuit
Member
|
# Posted: 4 Mar 2022 12:49pm
Reply
Haven't needed to buy any wood a while and so haven't really been following lumber prices lately...but it appears we're at all time highs again. And this is not even close to "Grade A" lumber. (British Columbia, $CDN)
[img=null]null[/img]
|
|
Aklogcabin
Member
|
# Posted: 4 Mar 2022 01:35pm
Reply
With oil over a hundred bucks a barrel demand for energy high. World politics with a war going on. If you were waiting for prices to drop I believe that time has gone. And if you would like to save money buy your materials now if building this summer.
We are planning to build a new retirement home this year. I am considering purchasing as much materials as I can now as prices will continue to rise. Even if we borrowed money which hopefully we can still build out of pocket n no debt. At 4.5%-6% you would save as prices will rise over 10%.
And hopefully the housing market will settle in at less than the 41/2-6%. I believe that it will. But this plan is in place n rolling. We will be ok if we can manage the time value of that money. And have a new home
|
|
Shadyacres
Member
|
# Posted: 4 Mar 2022 04:12pm
Reply
I just sawed another pile of yellow pine 2x4s with my woodmizer mill. Only thing I buy any more is osb or plywood. I can't make that yet.
|
|
Bruces
Member
|
# Posted: 4 Mar 2022 04:32pm
Reply
My son started a new job in the fall with one of the biggest sawmill companies in Canada,he is an electrical apprentice and is earning $76.00 hr ,$900.00 per 12 hour shift .I don’t think lumber prices are dropping anytime soon .
|
|
Shadyacres
Member
|
# Posted: 4 Mar 2022 05:24pm
Reply
Bruces : wow, what will he make once he is over his apprentice ship.
|
|
NorthRick
Member
|
# Posted: 4 Mar 2022 05:28pm
Reply
Like Wiskerbiscuit, I hadn't been paying attention lately. The other day I went to buy a few boards.
Sticker shock!
Not only are the prices high, the quality is low!
|
|
Bruces
Member
|
# Posted: 5 Mar 2022 09:46am
Reply
Shadyacres ,in Ontario his rate is determined as a percentage of a certified tradesman ,and he is at 80% now so $100.00 hr. give or take .He had been manufacturing substations and other equipment like that for the past 4 years ,and just finished a 6 million dollar order for the mill just before he jumped ship ,so now he is setting up and putting into service the things he built .
Anyways ,even the labourers are making $36.00 hr at the sawmill ,lumber isn’t getting cheaper any time soon I think .
|
|
|
